4 signs Omicron may soon peak in the U.S.

    Over the last six weeks, the hypertransmissive Omicron variant has generated its fair share of bad news in the United States.

    more than three times higher than ever before.

    A , pushing nationwide .

    And now, tragically, another 2,000 COVID-19 deaths, on average, every single day.

    At the current rate, America will likely top its summer Delta peak of about 2,100 deaths per day later this week — and could break its all-time record (about 3,300 deaths per day) by the end of the month.

    In other words, while Omicron itself might be , especially in vaccinated or previously infected people, America’s Omicron surge — the sum total of all the havoc the variant has wreaked — hasn’t been as “mild” as many had hoped.

    Kevin Barrett, in quarantine after his former hospital roommate tested positive for COVID-19, rubs his hands together as he recovers from an injury in the acute care unit of Harborview Medical Center, Friday, Jan. 14, 2022, in Seattle, Washington. (Elaine Thompson/AP)

    Kevin Barrett, in quarantine after his former hospital roommate tested positive for COVID-19, rubs his hands together as he recovers from an injury in the acute care unit of Harborview Medical Center, Friday, Jan. 14, 2022, in Seattle, Washington. (Elaine Thompson/AP)

    But every coronavirus wave crests in due course, then starts to descend — and over the past few days, new signs have emerged from across the country that the tide is starting to turn once again.

    So here’s some good news about Omicron — namely, that the worst of its spread may be in the rear-view mirror.

    Cases are plummeting in New York City — and they’re plummeting even faster than they were rising.

    New York City was the first place in the U.S. to get slammed by Omicron: Between Christmas and New Year’s, , on average, from about 15,000 a day to about 33,000 a day.

    Previously, America’s biggest city had never averaged more than about 6,200 cases in a single day. By Jan. 10, it was averaging more than 40,000.

    But ever since, transmission has fallen off a cliff.

    According to — which is adjusted to reflect the date of diagnosis — the peak likely came on Jan. 3, when the average number of confirmed and probable cases hit 42,670.

    A COVID-19 vaccine booster advertisement is displayed in New York, the United States, Jan. 9, 2022. (Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty Images)

    A COVID-19 vaccine booster advertisement is displayed in New York, the United States, Jan. 9, 2022. (Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty Images)

    As of Jan. 15, however, that number had plunged to 16,330 — a 62 percent drop in less than two weeks.

    In the dozen days before the peak, NYC cases increased at a rate of about 47 percent — meaning they’re now going down faster than they were going up.

    This is encouraging because it suggests that once other parts of the country peak, they too might see Omicron flame out even more swiftly and suddenly than it flared up in the first place.

    In fact, if NYC’s experience is any indication, the bulk of the current wave of transmission could effectively subside by the middle of February,

    By comparison, previous U.S. surges .

    Other cities are following New York’s lead.

    More good news: NYC isn’t alone.

    Right after Omicron exploded in New York, it started taking off in other dense, well-connected cities across the U.S.

    Between Dec. 6 and Dec. 20, for instance, cases rose by 442 percent in Houston, 285 percent in Washington, D.C., 219 percent in Miami and 170 percent in Cleveland.

    Over the last two weeks, however, cases have finally started to drop in most of these hard-hit cities: by 49 percent in Cleveland, by 20 percent in Washington, D.C., by 7 percent in Miami. In , cases are down week-over-week.

    Eddie Lewis gets a COVID-19 test done by a healthcare worker on January 13, 2022 in North Miami, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Eddie Lewis gets a COVID-19 test done by a healthcare worker on January 13, 2022 in North Miami, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Similar U-turns are also underway in , , and .

    Meanwhile, even cities where cases have yet to officially turn are showing signs that they’re about to: a lower percentage of COVID tests coming back positive (); declining Omicron levels in sewage samples ().

    Less vaccinated, more rural areas will take a little longer — but some may be starting to show improvement, too.

    Because of how Omicron tends to spread — rapidly, through the densest places first — U.S. cities ; outlying areas have lagged. That largely explains why the states where are overwhelmingly rural: South Carolina, Oklahoma, Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Alaska, Nebraska, Idaho, Wyoming and Idaho. Such places tend to have below-average vaccination rates as well.

    As Omicron spreads to less populated areas, the worry is that lower immunity levels and weaker healthcare infrastructure will lead to disproportionately high levels of hospitalization and death.

    That dynamic certainly bears watching as the worst of today’s rising rural cases work their way through the system in the coming weeks.

    A REACT EMS paramedic moves a cot into the home of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patient, in Shawnee, Oklahoma on January 12, 2022. (Nick Oxford/Reuters)

    A REACT EMS paramedic moves a cot into the home of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patient, in Shawnee, Oklahoma on January 12, 2022. (Nick Oxford/Reuters)

    Even so, at least three largely rural states with lower vaccination rates — , and — may , with that appear to be leveling off or even declining.

    In fact, as researcher Conor Kelly has pointed out, positivity rates are now heading “” across .

    A broader turnaround could be next, with other rural states not far behind.

    The best news of all? Hospitalizations seem to be on the same downward trajectory.

    As everyone knows by now, the most important metric isn’t how many people test positive for Omicron; the most important metric is how many of those people get sick enough to go to the hospital, or spread it to others who end up there.

    By any measure, forcing U.S. hospitals to cope with 157,000 COVID patients at once is an enormous burden — regardless of whether some percentage of those patients tested positive “incidentally” upon admission for another ailment. Patients with COVID must be kept separate from others, and healthcare workers who test positive must isolate no matter how mild their symptoms, leading to widespread staff shortages.

    As the Atlantic’s Ed Yong recently , “In the short time since Omicron was discovered, the popular narrative about the variant has calcified around the idea that it is milder. That is true for individuals, and in comparison with Delta, but the variant certainly isn’t mild for unvaccinated people, for those who could develop long COVID , and especially not for the health-care system as a whole.”

    As hospitalization numbers typically lag cases by about two weeks, it will be some time before the extreme pressure on medical professionals lets up. And again, that process will take longer in most rural areas, which are closer to the beginning of their own surges than to the end — and where rates of hospitalization and death may be higher than in more vaccinated cities.

    Registered nurse Estella Wilmarth tends to a patient in the acute care unit of Harborview Medical Center, Friday, Jan. 14, 2022, in Seattle, Washington. (Elaine Thompson/AP)

    Registered nurse Estella Wilmarth tends to a patient in the acute care unit of Harborview Medical Center, Friday, Jan. 14, 2022, in Seattle, Washington. (Elaine Thompson/AP)

    U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy outlined on Sunday how “the next few weeks will be tough” as Omicron continues to rise in different regions of the U.S.

    “The good news is that there are parts of the country, New York, in particular, and other parts of the Northeast, where we are starting to see a plateau and, in some cases, an early decline in cases,” Murthy told CNN. “The challenge is that … the entire country is not moving at the same pace. The Omicron wave started later in other parts of the country.”

    But the light at the end of the proverbial tunnel is starting to flicker, even now.

    In New York City, for instance, the average number of daily COVID hospital admissions — a rate roughly on par with the decline in cases. Overall hospitalizations ; they’re now at their lowest

    level since Christmas Eve. ICU and intubation numbers .

    More broadly, regional hospitalizations are . And while it’s a tentative sign of progress that may reflect delays in holiday reporting, the number of COVID patients nationwide — for the first time in more than a month.

    It may be too soon, in short, to say that Omicron has peaked in the U.S. But the peak is coming — and it appears to be coming sooner rather than later.

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    How are vaccination rates affecting the latest COVID surge? Check out this explainer from Yahoo Immersive to find out.

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